The BIG Game Theory – Myth or Reality?

The BIG Game Theory

Myth or REALITY?

We have all heard it time and time again this season.

Apparently, the ‘experts’ claim Arsenal can’t win the league, as we haven’t yet played all of the big teams.

This claim inherently suggests, that unless we are able to play and beat the big teams, we will not be able to win the league.

In this piece, I aim to confirm or contradict this theory.

As I do in all of my pieces, I will not set out to justify a conclusion that I have already made. I will reach an objective conclusion, substantiated by statistics and figures.

I aim to do this by analysing the results of the Premier League Champions against the other Top 6 finishing sides in that season, over the last 7 years.

 

 

The statistics

Past 7 Seasons Stats 

    Past 7 Seasons Stats Graph

In the current season, Arsenal are currently achieving a Big Games Points Percentage of 50%.

This is equal to or higher than 3 of the champions records in the last 7 seasons.

 

Arsenal are also achieving a Points Percentage v Other Teams of 81%.

This is also equal to or higher than 3 of the champions records in the last 7 seasons.

 

If tonight, Arsenal beat Chelsea, this Big Games Points Percentage of 50% moves up to 60%.

This is equal to or higher than 4 of the champions records in the last 7 seasons.

 

At this point, you may be confused.

If in the last 7 years, on 3 occasions a team has won the league without taking more than half of the points available to them in the BIG games, then why have Arsenal been written off so casually and confidently?

Last season, the league was won with only a Big Games Points Percentage of 47%.

I do not recall various so called experts consistently writing off the chances of the eventual champions.

So why this season, why are Arsenal being written off?

 

Let’s view things in a different way.

This season, the 6 teams that I have assumed will finish in the Top 6 positions and their current Big Games Points Percentage is as follows:

(Teams are listed in no particular order)

Current Season Stats

Based on the percentages above, Liverpool & Man City at 67%, have only been able to equal the 3rd highest Big Games Points Percentage in the last 7 seasons.

No team has been able to so far get into the 70% category in which the champions in 2007/08 and 2011/12 achieved.

In fact, the average Big Games Points Percentage that the champions over the last 7 seasons have gained is a surprisingly low 58%.

Before Arsenal lost to Man City last weekend, we had a Big Games Points Percentage of 67%, yet we were still being written off by the experts.

To me, that doesn’t back up the sole reason the so called experts have been referencing, as to why The Arsenal can’t win the title.

If Arsenal emerge victorious from tonight’s heavyweight encounter with Chelsea, the two teams Big Games Points Percentage changes as follows:

Arsenal v Chelsea Result Consequences

If Arsenal win, I will eagerly anticipate a change of tone from the ‘experts’, who should, based on the statistics, say that Chelsea can’t win the league, due to their performances in the BIG games.

They should also say that Arsenal can win the league, due to the fact that after playing 5 of their 10 games against the projected Top 6, we are currently achieving a Big Games Points Percentage of 60%, which is higher than the average Big Games Points Percentage that the Champions have achieved in the last 7 years of Premier League Football.

This analysis throws up some interesting comparisons.

Currently, Arsenal have a Big Games Points Percentage of 50% compared to Chelsea’s 56%, yet this small differential allows the ‘experts’ to completely write off Arsenal, while never daring to write off Chelsea’s chances.

Why is that?

I don’t believe the conspiracies that all of these ‘experts’ hate Arsenal. I do question a couple of them ‘_ _ _ _ _ _ _    _ _ _ _’ and ‘_ _ _ _   _ _ _ _ _ _ _’, in particular, but the truth is, the average football fan is naive in placing these ‘experts’ on a pedestal. The ‘experts’ purely want to go for a secure choice on national TV, which come the end of the season, provides them with the maximum chance of looking like a genius.

In my opinion, the continual doubt placed on our players in the football media, will only serve as an extra motivation to prove them wrong by winning the league, so long may it continue.

(Play Pundit Hangman with me on Twitter – @ArsenalMoh8)

Why is their opinion of such crucial importance to us?

Your opinion, or my opinion, or that of any football fan, is just as valid as any of the so called experts. They are only ex professional footballers. They are not skilled forecasters of Premier League performance.

Trust me. If they were, they would be HERE

The Lifestyle of an Oracle

NOT HERE

The Place of the Pundits 

Conclusion

Considering that in the last 7 years, the Champions have achieved a Big Games Points Percentage in the 40%’s on 2 occasions, in the 50%’s on 2 occasions, in the 60%’s on 1 occasion and in the 70%’s on 2 occasions, it is clear, that there is no Golden Rule when it comes to the Big matches.

The 30% range from 43% – 73%, displays that you can win the league even if you don’t perform brilliantly in the big games. Just to drum the point home, in the season that the league was won with a Big Games Points Percentage of 43%, the Champions accumulated 90 points, the highest total in the past 7 seasons that form my analysis.

The season in which a Big Games Points Percentage of 73% was achieved, 87 points were accumulated by the Champions. Unsurprisingly, this seems to substantiate the common knowledge, that looking at the big games in isolation is not an appropriate measure to determine who the eventual Champions will be.

What really matters is how you perform over the entire 38 game season.

Unfortunately, the above conclusion is what you knew already.

Beating your rivals certainly helps, but if we continue our performance against the ‘other’ teams, and only gain 8 points from our remaining possible 18 points from the BIG games, we will be on 82 points come the end of the season.

I believe this season could see a team be crowned Champions with a points total of between 82-85 points.

If Man City decide to start turning up away from home, unfortunately that figure will have to be pushed up to 90 points.

The game against Chelsea tonight will be a huge statement, but if we win, they will not start engraving Arsenal Football Club on the Premier League trophy.

On the flipside, if we lose the game tonight, we are not out of contention for the title.

My final note is for the benefit of the football pundits.

Please refer to the Oxford Dictionary for the definition of the words ‘can’t’ and ‘will’.

In order to assist you in comprehending this complex definition, I will use both words in a sentence.

If you continue to talk nonsense, I can’t take you seriously, however, if you start making sensible claims, I will take you seriously.

You can interact with me on Twitter: @ArsenalMoh8

Cannon

Gooner Ramble

2 Responses to “The BIG Game Theory – Myth or Reality?

  • Nice post. If we do manage to win the league let’s make sure Owen’s ‘Arsenal do not look like a top 4 team’ becomes as famous as ‘you can’t win anything with kids’….

    and that he loses his job.

  • friend, you can only argue against people who are ready to listen, but in our case haters have already decided that arsenal can’t win the league this season, after that however much statistics you give, these people will never accept that

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